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Novelty matrix

Reference IDs resolve to docs/literature_review.md and evidence/papers.json. “No certificate established” means none was established in this audit; it does not assert absence from an unread full text.

Closest three per original proposal

Project Closest prior method Already covered Potential remaining contribution Reviewer objection / required test
A Candidate graph classification, Deng et al. 2026 (A2) Propose regions, graph features, reject false candidates Correctly justified exclusivity with measured close-pair protection Merely graph postprocessing; compare to independent MLP gate and NMS
A EDGRU (A1) Edge-guided graph reasoning and clutter discrimination Explicit candidate feasibility rather than feature affinity Hard edges may delete true targets; require counterexample-driven stress tests
A CS-ViG-UNet (A3) Sparse graph features in an efficient detector Sparse candidate selection with provable assumptions GNN may add cost without gain; parameter-matched nongraph baseline
B SD Loss (B2) Size-dependent localization/scale loss Count-budget-aware object selection and measured calibration utility Another size weight is incremental; remove all size weights as an ablation
B AC-SLSIoU (B4) Hard-negative margins and false-alarm weighting Match-defined FP bound rather than negative-pixel penalty Why not tune the existing loss and threshold? Give all baselines identical calibration
B CG-IRNet (B5) Instance structure and confidence-based background suppression Explicit held-out expected-count certificate with sample-size limits Certificate might select empty output; report abstention rate and recall
C HyperTea (C3) Temporal graph/high-order enhancement plus alignment Candidate-path decisions with explicit uncertainty and computation budget Hypergraph→graph may be simplification only; same input window and budget
C MISTNet (C1) Irregular/fast motion, implicit compensation Explicit sparse trajectory inference Motion assumptions fail on MIST-Hard; oracle-edge recall and gate-miss audit
C DeepPro (C2) Long-term weak-evidence accumulation Sparse path-conditioned evidence under camera motion Long profiles may be cheaper and better; equal temporal context comparison

For revised B, LTT (B13), CRC (B14), and differentiable NP learning (X1, primary access pending) are conceptually closer than many IRSTD architectures. They must appear prominently in a manuscript. B10 already motivates stronger IRSTD evaluation. For C, classical DP–MHT–TBD (C8) prevents a claim that trajectory optimization is new. A9 prevents a naive close-target exclusion story.

What can and cannot be claimed now

Proposed claim Assessment
First graph-based IRSTD / first graph false-alarm suppression Contradicted by verified prior art
First size-sensitive or false-alarm-aware IRSTD loss Contradicted by verified prior art
First temporal graph detector / first weak-evidence temporal accumulation Contradicted by verified prior art
First differentiable constrained detector Not supportable; NP and risk-control prior art
New general statistical calibration theorem Not claimed; CP, union bounds and LTT are established
Matching-consistent candidate training plus calibrated object-count selection for IRSTD Plausible application-level research hypothesis; novelty not certified
Better recall at the same statistically certified count risk Strong experimentally testable claim; currently no evidence
Guaranteed retention of arbitrary close targets False absent candidate/source identifiability and safe edges

The useful mathematical mechanism is that the frozen-pool deficiency |S|−ν(S,G) permits coherent object-level calibration and a simple differentiable upper bound. Applying known calibration alone would likely be an incremental paper. Publishability requires a nontrivial, repeatable gain from training under that mechanism, clear evidence on real clutter, and comparison with calibrated existing models.

Audit update

EDGRU code is now accessible (see evidence/upstream_audit.md), strengthening its role as an executable comparison candidate pending license and environment checks. SLS/SD source inspection confirms that their scale/localization reductions must be reproduced exactly. Fixed-sequence risk testing is explicitly established in LTT; replacing the conservative calibration bound is a baseline improvement, not an additional novelty claim.